Prediction Research Manager

Aaru
New York
Workplace: OnsiteFull timeFunction: Research & Scientific (R&D)Skills: ["Scientific judgment","People leadership","Error analysis","Clear communication"]

Lead a focused team of Prediction Researchers and research engineers to build empirical, calibrated systems for forecasting population-level outcomes and uncertainty under changing conditions. Translate the broader prediction agenda into testable workstreams, design falsifiable experiments with strong baselines, and directly contribute to model and evaluation design. Partner across data, evaluation, and simulation/product engineering to validate results, prevent leakage, and transfer proven methods to production.

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Aaru
Aaru
3 days ago

Prediction Research Manager

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Last checked: 16 hours agoStatus: Live

Job Summary

Lead a focused team of Prediction Researchers and research engineers to build empirical, calibrated systems for forecasting population-level outcomes and uncertainty under changing conditions. Translate the broader prediction agenda into testable workstreams, design falsifiable experiments with strong baselines, and directly contribute to model and evaluation design. Partner across data, evaluation, and simulation/product engineering to validate results, prevent leakage, and transfer proven methods to production.
Location: New York
Workplace: Onsite
Employment Type: Full time
Job Function: Research & Scientific (R&D)
Seniority: Manager level

Key Responsibilities

  • •Build, lead, and develop a Prediction Research team; set priorities for aggregate prediction, calibration, conditioning, drift, and agentic prediction systems.
  • •Turn unclear prediction problems into falsifiable hypotheses with strong baselines, explicit datasets, decisive experiments, and stopping/continuation criteria.
  • •Develop and test methods that combine structured data with statistical/ML models and optional language-model components (retrieval, tools, inference-time reasoning).
  • •Establish standards and evaluation practices for calibration, temporal validity, prospective testing, subgroup performance, selective prediction, leakage prevention, and robustness under condition shift.
  • •Transfer validated methods to Simulation Engineering with reproducible implementations and evidence; communicate negative or unstable results clearly and stop low-evidence work.

Key Requirements

  • •Led predictive, forecasting, machine-learning, quantitative, or applied research with a high empirical bar.
  • •Built predictive systems from heterogeneous, messy data and validated against temporally valid outcomes.
  • •Comfortable spanning research strategy, statistical reasoning, model design, data design, implementation, and detailed error analysis.
  • •Care deeply about calibration, temporal validity, selection effects, leakage, subgroup behavior, and robustness under condition shift.
  • •Managed or technically led strong researchers, giving clear feedback and developing independent scientific judgment.
Experience:Machine learningForecastingQuantitative researchTime-series modelingCausal inference
Skills:Scientific judgmentPeople leadershipError analysisClear communication
Tech Stack:Machine learningLanguage modelsRetrievalTool useInference-time reasoningTime-series modelingEconometricsCausal inferenceProbabilistic programming

Company Brief

Aaru
Aaru builds multi-agent simulation software that models entire populations to predict behavior and future events, replacing traditional research with decision-ready forecasts for enterprises, governments, and agencies across industries.
Industry: AI & Machine Learning
Company Size: Small (11 to 50 employees)
Revenue: USD 1M to 5M
Growth: Early Stage Startup
Valuation: Unicorn (USD 1B+)
Funding: Series A
Headquarters: San Francisco, United States
Founded: 2024
WebsiteLinkedIn