Head of Prediction Research

Aaru
New York
Workplace: OnsiteFull timeUSD 450,000 - 750,000Function: Research & Scientific (R&D)Skills: ["Research leadership","Statistical reasoning","Experiment design","Calibration focus","Clear communication"]

Set the scientific direction for prediction research systems that estimate unknown or future outcomes from structured data and evidence retrieval. Lead hands-on work from early experiments through validated, calibrated methods—covering forecasting, behavioral prediction, calibration, and agentic prediction. Establish a research data strategy, design rigorous evaluations with strong baselines and temporal holdouts, and build feedback loops so resolved events improve future systems. Recruit and lead a small team in New York.

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FursaFursa
Aaru
Aaru
1 day ago

Head of Prediction Research

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Source: Company careers pageValidated by: Fursa AI
Last checked: 15 hours agoStatus: Live

Job Summary

Set the scientific direction for prediction research systems that estimate unknown or future outcomes from structured data and evidence retrieval. Lead hands-on work from early experiments through validated, calibrated methods—covering forecasting, behavioral prediction, calibration, and agentic prediction. Establish a research data strategy, design rigorous evaluations with strong baselines and temporal holdouts, and build feedback loops so resolved events improve future systems. Recruit and lead a small team in New York.
Location: New York
Workplace: Onsite
Employment Type: Full time
Job Function: Research & Scientific (R&D)
Seniority: Sr. Director level

Key Responsibilities

  • •Define a focused research agenda for forecasting, behavioral prediction, calibration, and agentic prediction systems.
  • •Build and test systems combining language models with structured data, retrieval, tools, and quantitative methods.
  • •Develop prediction methods using real-world records (e.g., transactions, usage, event histories, operational/market data, longitudinal outcomes).
  • •Establish data strategy and lead acquisition, joining, cleaning, documentation, and serving of research-quality data to support prediction across the company.
  • •Hire, mentor, and lead a small team while directly contributing; design experiments with strong baselines and temporal holdouts and communicate findings clearly (including negative results).

Pay and Benefits

Salary: USD 450,000 - 750,000
Perks:Equity

Key Requirements

  • •Develop an original research agenda in frontier machine learning, forecasting, probabilistic modeling, agentic systems, or comparable rigorous technical domains.
  • •Build predictive systems from messy, heterogeneous data and validate them against observed outcomes.
  • •Combine research strategy with statistical reasoning, model/data design, implementation, and detailed error analysis.
  • •Understand language model strengths and failure modes and effectively integrate them with structured data and quantitative methods.
  • •Lead researchers or a major technical direction while continuing to contribute directly to the work.
Experience:Frontier machine learningForecastingProbabilistic modelingAgentic systemsTime-series modelingEconometricsCausal inferenceRecommender systemsRisk modelingQuantitative social science
Skills:Research leadershipStatistical reasoningExperiment designCalibration focusClear communication
Tech Stack:Language modelsLLM agentsRetrievalTool useAgentic prediction systemsProbabilistic modelingTime-series modelingEconometricsCausal inferenceSynthetic environments

Company Brief

Aaru
Aaru builds multi-agent simulation software that models entire populations to predict behavior and future events, replacing traditional research with decision-ready forecasts for enterprises, governments, and agencies across industries.
Industry: AI & Machine Learning
Company Size: Small (11 to 50 employees)
Revenue: USD 1M to 5M
Growth: Early Stage Startup
Valuation: Unicorn (USD 1B+)
Funding: Series A
Headquarters: San Francisco, United States
Founded: 2024
WebsiteLinkedIn